What once was certain is now up for debate
From there, the waters are further muddied: “However, the NBER also says there is ‘no fixed rule about what measures contribute information to the process or how they are weighted in our decisions,’ Investopedia reported.
Many Americans take economists’ views – most saying we are not currently in a recession – with a grain of salt. A recent Morning Consult poll found that 46% of Americans believe the nation already is in a recession. The survey also found 41% of Americans changing their spending habits in anticipation of recession. The same percentage reported lacking the financial wherewithal to prepare, although wishing they could.
Implausibly robust employment numbers amid inflation and rising interest rates further throw a wrench in the old works. In April alone, employers added 253,000 jobs – bringing the unemployment rate to 3.4% in matching a 54-year low, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Granted, the jobless rate fell in part because 43,000 left the labor force altogether and were no longer counted as unemployed.
But still – 253,000 jobs. That’s a pretty solid number.
In a recent interview with Mortgage Professional America, the Mortgage Bankers Association’s vice president of Industry Analysis, Marina Walsh, offered her take: “It’s definitely a factor, but the interesting thing about recessions is we don’t know it was a recession until after it already occurred, usually,” she said. “There’s a whole body of economic analysis that determines what a recession is not. And so a lot of folks back of the envelope say two quarters of negative GDP [gross domestic product]. But that did happen last year, and it wasn’t necessarily a recession.”